Study: World faces growing threat of severe drought

Results of a new study by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) scientist Aiguo Dai indicate that the U.S. and other heavily populated countries face a growing threat of severe and prolonged drought in coming decades, according to the National Science Foundation.

The detailed analysis concludes that warming temperatures associated with climate change will likely create increasingly dry conditions across much of the globe in the next 30 years.

The drought may reach a scale in some regions by the end of the century that has rarely, if ever, been observed in modern times, the release stated.

Using an ensemble of 22 computer climate models and a comprehensive index of drought conditions, as well as analyses of previously published studies, the paper reports that by the 2030s, dryness is likely to increase substantially across most of the Western Hemisphere, along with large parts of Eurasia, Africa and Australia.

By later this century, many of the world's most densely populated regions will be threatened with severe drought conditions, according to the release.

While regional climate projections are less certain than those for the globe as a whole, Dai's study indicates that most of the western two-thirds of the United States will be significantly drier by the 2030s.

“We are facing the possibility of widespread drought in the coming decades, but this has yet to be fully recognized by both the public and the climate change research community,” Dai said. “If the projections in this study come even close to being realized, the consequences for society worldwide will be enormous.”

The new findings appear this week as part of a longer review article in Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change.

To read the entire article, click here.

For related information, click here.

--
The National Science Foundation (NSF) is an independent federal agency that supports fundamental research and education across all fields of science and engineering. In fiscal year (FY) 2010, its budget is about $6.9 billion. NSF funds reach all 50 states through grants to nearly 2,000 universities and institutions. Each year, NSF receives over 45,000 competitive requests for funding, and makes over 11,500 new funding awards. NSF also awards over $400 million in professional and service contracts yearly.